Thump in the Night….
Update 6 PM:
Some nice bands of snow setting up over the Tahoe Basin. As temperatures drop tonight we will see up to 20:1 snow ratios and the models are showing .23-.5 inches of liquid. So we could see up to a foot on some of the mountains if the snow bands continue to sit over the basin.
The NAM this evening is showing over an inch of liquid through Sunday night but the other models only up to three quarters of an inch. More of a nowcasting scenario with the snow shower bands through Sunday. Only expecting a few more inches Sunday and Sunday night as of right now from the snow showers. We’ll see how much more we picked up in the morning….
Update 11 AM:
Tallied up all the numbers and they are impressive. Resort Totals page updated as of the 6 a.m. reports and resorts around the lake reporting anywhere from 30-48 inches in just the past 23 hours! Every region got about the same amounts as there was plenty of forcing over the crest.
Reader Reports page updated as well as we await more reports to come in so keep sending them. So far reports of 9-29 inches in the past 24 hours. The storm pretty much dropped exactly as forecasted with 2.5 – 4 feet on the mountains and 9 inches – 2 feet at lake level.
Totals for the week on the mountains are now up to 42-97 inches, with the 42 inches being at resorts East of the lake and 97 Northwest of the lake along the crest. 3-8 more inches by Monday morning would get 3 resort to 100 inches for the week.
We will look at the totals for March on Monday but so far 7 resorts are now over 90 inches for the month and 5 resorts are over 100 inches. With 2 more weeks still left in March if we get more storms it could be a Miracle month especially since the resorts only had a 100 something inches the first 4 months of the season combined. Resorts are now up to 55% of their annual snowfall average as of this morning.
If you are looking at the sattelite you can see the next wave spinning inland to our South. With the cold front stalled and the jet stream pushing into the base of the trough in Southern CA the trough is becoming negatively tilted. As this next wave of precip pushes in we should begin to see moisture come up from the South and snow showers should start to increase again this afternoon, especially South of the lake.
As the low passes to our East the snow showers should continue through Sunday. The latest model runs still show enough liquid over the basin for 3-6 more inches at lake level through Sunday afternoon and 6-12 inches above 7000 ft. More the further South you go. It looks like the most may fall tonight.
While we have been watching the storms hitting this week the PNA has gone positive. The image up top from NOAA is not working so you have to click it and then click it again on the NOAA page. The MJO is also moving into phases 6&7 over the next week which supports the positive PNA. That pattern has higher heights and ridging along the West coast.
The forecast models are responding and show the ridge building off the coast this week keeping the Tuesday and Thursday systems to our North. Then a cold trough will try hard to push in next weekend but it will encounter the ridge and will be slow to move in. It could even split and form a cut-off low that will need the next upstream storm to push it in. Right now the forecast models still have the cold trough pushing through slowly next weekend bringing us another cold and snowy weekend.
For week 2 the MJO is forecasted to weaken and the PNA is forecasted to go neutral. That may allow more storms to dive in for the last week of the month. The long-range models are showing this. If the MJO stays strong in the Pacific and the PNA positive the long-range may trend drier. We’ll see but for now plenty of snow to enjoy.
Might do another quick update tonight if anything changes on the forecast for tonights light snow showers. BA
From 5 AM:
Cold front pushed through as of 4 a.m. and we are now seeing a break until the next wave pushes in this afternoon. The models have been trending this wave further South towards Mammoth as the trough digs South so we will be on the Northern end of the precip.
Still showing enough liquid for 3-6 inches this afternoon through Sunday at lake level with the snow showers, and 6-12 inches above 7000 ft. The highest amounts will be the further South you go, so the resorts South of the lake should report the highest totals. That is over 36 hours so it will accumulate slowly.
It’s too early for resort snowfall reports this morning, but looking at the webcams I’m expecting reports of 2-3 feet. I’m heading out to ride so I’ll tall up the numbers later this morning from around the lake. Check back..BA
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