Topping Off March
Update 8 PM:
No changes on the forecast for the weekend. It’s going to rain to start at lake level but the snow levels will drop as the cold front moves through Saturday afternoon and evening. Still looks like 4-8 inches possible at lake level, 8-12 above 7000 ft. and up to 18 inches West of the lake along the crest.
It looks like the snow showers could last into Sunday now with a few more inches possible. The models are trying to figure out next week. After a break to start the week it looks like we will see another system Wednesday with light snowfall. The question is what happens after that?
The European model brings in a strong system Thursday and then a has a cut-off low spinning down the coast through the weekend of the 7th. That would bring light snow through the period with several more inches possible. The GFS keeps the Thursday system to our North and then keeps the cut-off low off the coast with it not coming inland until possibly the following week.
It was looking like the ridge would build in for quiet weather beyond the middle of next week but the Euro is putting that in question. We will have to watch over the weekend. BA
From This Morning:
Resort Totals page is updated and there was a lot of variance in snowfall amounts with the snow showers yesterday. Resorts in the NW corner of Tahoe picked up another 10-14 inches in the past 24 hours brining their 4 day totals to 31-34 inches. The rest of the resorts picked up 2-8 inches bringing their 4 day totals to 18-24 inches. East side of the lake only 8 inches except for 18 at the top of Mt. Rose.
That will finish off the numbers for March because what falls Saturday will be reported on Sunday morning April 1st. Several resorts picked up over 150 inches in the month of March and we are at 62% of the seasonal averages combined. Some resorts are up to 70% of average and we still have another month to go.
The forecast last summer was for 75% of avarage snowfall based on the forecast for a weak La Nina. When the forecast for a super Nina came out in the fall i bumped up the forecast to average. I didn’t believe the super Nina was coming but though a moderate one was possible. We ended up only getting a weak La Nina and now it is fading out. If we end up with 75% of average snowfall for the season that would be right on par with the history of weak La Ninas averaged together for Tahoe.
Reader Reports is updated with reports of anywhere from an inch to 10 inches being reported. The amounts were higher on the North side of the lake and the higher up in elevation you go.
Now we warm up for 2 days before the cold front blasts in and drops another foot or more on Saturday. More on that this evening, but no changes from the snowfall forecast below from last night…BA
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