Wednesday Evening Storm Update….
Update 6 PM:
Snow showers are firing up nicely over the Sierra this evening and we are finally starting to get some spillover into the basin. We should see another 1-3 inches at lake level tonight, 2-4 inches East of the crest on the mountains, and 3-6 inches along the crest.
Second system is ready to push a cold front through Thursday afternoon with a heavy snow and then another round of heavier snow Friday as the center of the low comes onshore. I’m still amazed at the difference in total liquid with the second system between the GFS and the Euro. They usually pull within range of each other right before a storm.
Here is the GFS through Friday night…
And here is the Euro…
Basically Double on the Euro and the difference between 12-18 and 2-3 feet above 7000 ft. So what to do this evening? Ignore them both and go with the NAM which is right in the middle and no different than the forecast the last few days.
So I’m sticking with 6-12 inches at lake level, 12-18 inches above 7000 ft., and 18-24+ inches along the crest with the second system. Half coming Thursday afternoon and night and the other half Friday into Friday night.
To correct last nights comment on all the resorts closing by the 29th, it looks like Kirkwood and Alpine may try to open a weekend or two in May now conditions permitting. All the resorts not on the West side of the lake close this weekend, but the rest close over the following two weekends. There is a chance that this is not the last dump of the season for them.
Looking at the teleconnection forecasts the past week there hasn’t been anything showing that storms wouldn’t come, I have just been waiting to see something show up in the long range models. It’s not a sure bet this late in the season when the pattern is favorable. We look to be going back into a negative PNA pattern beyond mid-month which supports the West Coast trough.
Also the MJO is heading towards phase 2 and it will be interesting to see how strong it stays over the next week. Here is the phase 2 composite for precipitation in April showing above average precip.
The long-range models show retrogression of the dirty ridge that builds in this weekend by the end of next week. The GFS cuts off another low off the coast and then brings it in 2 weeks from now. But the Euro and its ensembles now bring a cold storm into Tahoe again next Friday.
Here is the Euro for total precip between the storm this Friday and next Friday. It adds another 2-3 inches of liquid on the crest, another 2-3 feet? Don’t get excited yet, it’s still over a week away and only showing up today, but the teleconnection forecasts for next week say, “why not?”.
Ironically the Winter that never was may want to hang on here in Spring. Everyone loves a good comeback story. We’ll see…BA
From This Morning:
Resorts only reporting around an inch as the snow just started falling around 5 a.m. as they were getting ready to measure. It should snow most of the day with several inches on the mountains. Update this evening…BA
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