Weekend Storms Falling Apart…
Updated 7 PM:
The forecast models have been trending drier for the weekend over the past 24 hours. The trend has been for the Saturday system to stay a bit furthern North. This was never forecasted to bring more than a few inches but now it looks like some snow showers and maybe a dusting to an inch or two on the mountains.
The European model earlier in the week showed the system for Sunday night possibly bringing several inches, but the trend has been for that storm to be weaker with maybe another dusting to an inch or two for the mountains. Snow will be in the air this weekend but it may just not be on the ground other than up on the mountains.
We are in a postive PNA pattern so the ridge will want to be off the coast keeping storms to our North until it flips. The forecast for next week is still dry with the storms staying into the Pacific NW. Still watching for the pattern to flip the last week of the month into March. The MJO and PNA forecasts are still on track as well as the CFS model.
The forecast models have been hinting at a cold trough dropping down the West coast next weekend with snow. It showed up in a few runs of the GFS yesterday and last night and then backed off again today. If the pattern is going to flip I would expect the models to flip-flop over the next several days until they get a handle on it. What a frustrating Winter so far and that feeling is shared across a lot of the country with the exception of the Pacific NW. BA
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