GFS model has been further South the past couple days with the storm this weekend, and the European model has stayed consistent with Tahoe getting the bullseye of the strong jet. That means we are in for a wet weekend, especially on Sunday. With the jetstream aimed at the West Coast we will see several storms come onshore over the next 5 days.
Clouds should be on the increase starting Friday as the first storm nears the coast. On Saturday we have the first weak storm roll through with light amounts of rain showers. Snow levels will start out as low as 7500 ft. on Saturday with the first storm, so don’t be suprised to see snow if you are in the higher elevations.
Sunday the big storm moves in. This storm will bring lots of rain and wind. The GFS model, which is further North with the storm, shows us getting 2-3 inches of rain on the crest with lower amounts in the Basin. The Euro model shows over 5 inches of rain on the crest with several inches in the basin. There will be lots of warm air drawn up ahead of the storm with the strong South winds, so snow levels will rise to 9,000 ft. or higher for most of the storm.
On Monday, the cold front moves through dropping snow levels down close to or just above lake level as the precip moves out. That could mean a dusting on top of the mountains at the tail end of the precip.
On Tuesday, one last storm comes onshore. Once again we have the GFS further North and then dropping it inside of us, and the Euro further South dropping it right over us. This storm will be associated with much colder air and snow levels will be down to lake level or lower which means we will have snow for everyone. Even the wettest model run only has up to an inch of liquid so this storm does not have that much moisture. If it does track right over us we could see several inches of snow though, so definitely something to watch the next couple of days. If it tracks inside of us like the GFS suggests then we may only get cold air from the storm. Cold air behind the storm Tuesday night will be plenty cold enough to make snow, so look for some of the resorts to fire up their guns.
We are dealing with the same issues on how far North with the Halloween weekend storm as well. This is another cold storm so if it does track far enough South we will be talking about accumulating snowfall. Looking at the first week of November it looks to stay active with a series of storms hitting the Pacific NW. I would expect at least some snowfall that week. Stay tuned……..BA
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