Wind, Snow, Cold………
Take a look at the Pacific Satellite. You can see the large area of low pressure spinning in the Northeast Pacific and the cold front with lots of cold air behind it. The popcorn clouds show how cold the air is. You can also see the wave being drawn up ahead of the cold front off the coast of CA.
I have been looking at lots of models over the past 2 days trying to get a better handle on the details for the storms this week. The biggest change is the slow the onset of snow in the Tahoe Basin and Truckee until Tuesday night except up along the crest.
We will start with lots of wind tomorrow as the jetstream approaches the area to our North. Light snow showers could develop along the crest during the afternoon and just wind and clouds for the rest of us. Because of the angle of the jetstream as the trough digs down off the coast the winds will be howling out of the South and Southwest. That will keep the precip to our North near Shasta and Lassen, and along the Western crest of Tahoe until the cold front gets closer later on Tuesday. It will feel like the storm is here on Tuesday and you will be waiting all day wondering when the snow will start.
Accumulations for resorts along the crest for Monday and Tuesday will be light, around 3-6 inches are possible by Tuesday afternoon. Then the real show starts as the cold front approaches Tuesday night. Heavy snow will move in for all areas and will last through the day on Wednesday. By Wednesday night we should have around 12-18 inches on the ground around the lake with 18-24 inches above 7000 ft., and 2-3 feet along the crest.
Snow showers will continue Wednesday night and Thursday with snow ratios of 20:1 above 7000 ft. So even though the liquid amounts will be light the snow will pile up fast in the bands of snow showers. Depending on where the heaviest snow bands go we could see several more inches, especially along the crest.
The GFS is the outlier showing things clearing out for President’s weekend. The other models show another wave of snow for Friday and Saturday. Depening on whether this storm comes to our South or just over us we could see anything from a dusting up to another foot of snow. Hopefully the models can come into some sort of agreement with the track of the storm today or tomorrow. Either way it will be cold with highs in the teens and 20′s into President’s weekend. Total snowfall by Saturday could be up to 2 feet at lake level, 3 feet above 7000 ft., and 4 feet on the crest. Not huge, but it will do the trick.
Models are still all over the place for week 2. It looks as if the ridge out in the Pacific will be a little further East towards the Gulf of Alaska. This would continue to drive cold air into the area and bring light-moderate sized storms down the coast. Because they would not have the over water trajectory like this weeks storm they would have lighter snow amounts, but with the really cold air the snow could still pile up.
Stay tuned as we fine tune the snow amounts and details for this week. BA
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