Winter to Summer, Summer to Winter….
Well we went from snowing in June right into Summer and now we will go from Summer in September right ino snow in October. This is quite an interesting storm and looking quite strong for the first week of October. Today is 5 days out which is usually my mark where confidence starts to grow.
The models have been up and down today with regards to the timing of the storm and the precip amounts. That is the game we are going to play over the next 4 days leading up to the storm. The latest GFS and Euro model runs show 1.5-2 inches of total liquid by Thursday morning. The first weaker front that comes through on Tuesday is now looking less impressive, but the first storm after a long dry stretch usually acts more like the full-back moistening the atmosphere and opening the door for the second front.
The ridge is already beginning its retrogression this weekend and building out around 160w. That opens the storm door. The first storm hits the Pacific NW on Tuesday dragging a front through the area and maybe some very light rain showers. The second stronger front brings a round of heavier precip Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The big question is going to be how fast do the snow levels fall to lake level and how much moisture is left afterward. The Euro shows the most post-fronal precip Wednesday night. It should be mostly all snow on the peaks and then the snow levels should drop to around 7000 ft. by Wednesday evening, and finally to lake level Wednesday night.
It’s way too early to talk about snow amounts but you know that is how I roll. If this evenings models were to play out we would see 1-3 inches in Truckee and South Lake, 3-6 inches at lake level up to 7000 ft. 6-12 inches above 7000 feet and 12-18 inches above 8000 ft. and along the crest. If the storm speeds up and the snow levels drop during the day on Wednesday with the heaviest preccip before Wednesday night, then I think the high sun angle prevents any lake level snow accumulation. But right now it appears we will have snow snow at night.
Lots of watching to do over the weekend and fine tuning of the forecast as we track exact the timing and precip amounts. Some people laughed at the idea of 100 inches of snow the week before Thanksgiving last year and we had the last laugh. Some will laugh at the idea of accumulating snow next week, so stay tuned so you can have the last laugh again. BA
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