There seems to be some talk that Winter must be done now since we got a big storm last week and saw Spring temps this week. Not so fast as it is only March 21st and that leaves a lot more Winter left for Tahoe. Don’t forget we saw snows all the way into June last year. Not seeing any huge storms in the forecast but the chance for several moderate storms.

The forecast for the storm this weekend is still giving the forecast models trouble. They were starting to agree this morning and then diverged again this afternoon. The Euro brings the snow in as early as Saturday afternoon while the GFS holds it off until Sunday night. There is not much pushing this storm forward so we may just have to watch to see how it progresses on Saturday.

Overall there is agreement that the storm will push through by Monday with total snowfall of around 3-6 inches at lake level and 6-9 inches above 7000 ft. An outside chance of up to a foot along the crest. At lake level if the snow comes in at night it will have a much better chance of accumulation than during the day as temps could hit the low 40′s during the day Sunday.

The next storm is not far behind and will move in Tuesday-Wednesday. The Euro shows this storm bringing a couple feet of snow while the GFS and some other models show amounts more in the 6-12 inch range. Either way we’ll take it and we’ll keep watching the trend over the next few days.

A much colder storm looks like it will move in next Friday-Saturday bringing a decent shot of snow. Way too early to make a snowfall forecast but right now it looks like it could be in the foot plus range. Overall it looks like we will remain in an active weather pattern for the next two weeks with several chances for fresh snowfall.

Looking at the teleconnection forecasts it looks like the active pattern could continue at least a third week. The CFS V2 climate model agrees showing above average precip for CA week 3.

We’ll see…BA

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