You’ll Need a Jacket More Than a Shovel….
All the models agreed overnight and into this morning that the center of the low dropping down the coast tomorrow is going to stay further offshore. That means that we will have a little less moisture to work with and less of a push over the crest. The pattern over the next 5 days will be quite cold though.
With the low staying further offshore the total precip amounts have backed off with the chance of up to .5 inches of liquid confined to the crest. Temps will be dropping into the teens on Thursday night so the snow ratios will be high for whatever does fall giving us the fluff factor. This is blower pow but just not very much.
I am going to cut down on the forecasted totals slightly. 1-3 inches at lake level, 3-6 inches above 7000 ft., with up to 9 inches on the crest. The snow showers will stick around through Friday and then we get a break before another similar storm drops in for Sunday. It is just going to be a cold and snow showery pattern for about 5 days.
There is another storm dropping down the coast for Wednesday into Thursday. This one is interesting because the models are not sure how to handle it yet. They are showing it come down too far off the coast to bring us anything, too far North to bring us anything, and digging off the coast and bringing us a fairly nice sized snowstorm. Yesterday’s 6z GFS and last nights 12z GFS both showed the bigger storm. We just have to watch where exactly the ridge sets up midweek. Should have a bettern handle on the storm tomorrow.
After that it still looks like things will get quieter for mid-month and warmer as well as the ridge moves back off the coast. The cold trough pattern should shift into the East for the second half of the month. The resorts should be able to make enough snow until then to get some trails open.
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