The thing that I work hard at is long-range forecasting,especially for the possibility of big storms. When you put in the amount of time I do you really take it hard if you are wrong and really excited when you are right. The forecast for some big snow on Thanksgiving was a bust thanks to the split flow that developed and split the storms before they hit.
But I nailed a forecast perfectly that I made back in October for December and it’s nice to get it right. Unfortunately it’s even worse on the other hand because the forecast was for a dry December before we get hit hard the rest of the Winter. However, it is not uncommon here for the snow not to start until Christmas or just after especially in a La Nina season.
I exected a condensed Winter with a later start and early finish with lots of snow in the middle. It was almost a bust as we got off to an ok start in November but we are back in line with the forecast. Some people have thrown in the towel already and more of your friends will as it stays dry the next couple of weeks but don’t be fooled.
Some of the professional weather sites have come out with their final updated Winter forecasts this week. There were not that many changes and the changes were based on the warming Indian Ocean and expansion of the warm pool of water in the Western Pacific. Nothing really changed however in the forecasts for the Tahoe region.
One of the signatures of this Winter in Tahoe should be the cold and that will start before the snow does here in December. Here is WeaterBell’s temperature forecast for the Winter showing the average temperature departures from average. We are in the -2 zone.
My forecast for the Winter is 105% of average which is just above. Below is the WeatherBell snowfall forecast. We are not in the blue region because it starts at 110% of average and higher.
So are we just average or slightly above like I am thinking based on historical La Nina’s of this strength in Tahoe? An average Winter for us is still over 400 inches on Donner Summit. Well Accuweather leans towards the above side with their final forecast below.
In the meantime over the next couple of weeks there is still not a good sign from the models on a big storm. They won’t catch onto some of the teleconnection signals until about a week out like the MJO. So for now we will have seasonal temperatures with shots of cold from the North every few days. Snowmaking is king for now. Stay tuned…..BA
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